Did the candidate for chancellor make mistakes?PaleoMD
Did the candidate for chancellor make mistakes?
In the 2012 vote, it was 29.5 percent by noon. In the city of Düsseldorf, the turnout was more than 41 percent by noon, in Duisburg a good 30 percent of those eligible to vote had cast their vote by then. A total of around 13.1 million people are called to vote for a new state parliament, the polling stations remain open until 6 p.m. A close result of the election is expected: In the polls, the SPD under Prime Minister Hannelore Kraft and the opposition CDU with their top candidate Armin Laschet fought head-to-head with changing leadership. The most likely government option after the election was a grand coalition that could replace the current red-green state alliance. But it is not clear who heads the government.
The arrival of the AfD is as likely as the departure of the pirate party from the last state parliament. The FDP could become the third party with its top candidate Christian Lindner. When he cast his vote in Würselen, Schulz said that state elections always have a mood-building character, but in the end they are votes on the respective federal state. Incumbent Kraft contradicted the impression that a diminishing “” Schulz effect “” could cost her the election victory. She is confident after the SPD fought to the last.
CDU top candidate Armin Laschet said there was a real chance of a victory for his party. In a survey published today, the Union is expanding its lead over the SPD in the federal government. In the Sunday trend that the polling institute Emnid collects for “” Bild am Sonntag “”, the CDU and CSU improve by one point and reach 37 percent. The last time the CDU / CSU were so strong was in January.
The SPD, however, loses one point and comes to 27 percent. For the party, this is the worst value since Martin Schulz was proclaimed candidate for chancellor in January. Left (ten percent) and Greens (eight percent) can gain one point each. The AfD loses a counter and reaches eight percent.
As in the previous week, the FDP is six percent. For the Sunday trend, Emnid interviewed people between May 4 and 10, 1873. Source: ntv.de, jgu / rts “Armin Laschet and Hannelore Kraft: One is happy, the other almost seems relieved. (Photo: REUTERS) Who would have thought: Instead of casually winning two elections, the SPD lost three elections this year, but the start of the Bundestag election campaign for the CDU could hardly have gone better.
Seven lessons from the state elections in North Rhine-Westphalia – one for each party. The jubilation at the CDU in Düsseldorf was enormous. After all, it is only for the second time since 1967 that the party has been able to occupy the office of Prime Minister of North Rhine-Westphalia. But the election victory for the Union is also a great success outside of North Rhine-Westphalia: since Angela Merkel took office as Federal Chancellor in 2005, the CDU has only lost, not won, Prime Minister.biology essays writing service In the year in which, for the first time in a long time, the SPD seemed to have a prospect of driving Merkel out of the Chancellery, the trend reversed. Just a few weeks ago it looked as if the CDU could at most one of the three state elections in Winning this year: the one in Saarland in March.
In Schleswig-Holstein and North Rhine-Westphalia, many believed that the SPD minister-presidents were as good as invincible. And now? Daniel Günther will soon move into the State Chancellery in Kiel and Armin Laschet in Düsseldorf. According to Infratest Dimap, the CDU was able to mobilize 440,000 non-voters in NRW, more than all other parties put together.
A CDU campaigner tweeted a picture on election evening. Accordingly, it is three to zero for the CDU in the game against the SPD. The mood in the Union could hardly be better.
Even a coalition with the FDP is possible, albeit with a wafer-thin majority. Of course, Merkel’s election victory in the federal elections in September is not certain, even if a good mood among election campaigners is worth a lot. But the tailwind that the Chancellor is currently enjoying is considerable. Does anyone still remember all the articles about an alleged “Merkel Twilight” that appeared in 2015 and 2016?
North Rhine-Westphalia is known to be the “” heart chamber of social democracy “”. Defeat there hurts twice. But it’s even worse: The 31.2 percent from Sunday evening is the SPD’s worst result in the history of this state. It is true that the Social Democrats in Düsseldorf and Berlin tried to justify the outcome of the election on the basis of state politics.
To support this, Hannelore Kraft even resigned as head of the country and federal vice-president of the SPD (and seemed almost a little relieved). The reasoning is even correct – there was a mood of change in NRW that had nothing to do with the upcoming federal election, and also nothing to do with Martin Schulz. Nevertheless, the signal that is emanating from NRW is not good for the SPD’s candidate for chancellor. “” If Hannelore wins in North Rhine-Westphalia, I will become Federal Chancellor! “” Schulz said that at the beginning of April, and on election evening Social Democrats had to let this sentence be repeated over and over again. Everyone said that the reverse does not apply.
Schulz is not responsible for the defeat, but he is the one who has to pay for it now. It’s not his fault and he’s still standing there like a fool. “” Who would have thought this evening in autumn 2013 was possible? “, FDP leader Christian Lindner called out to his enthusiastic party friends at the Liberals’ election party in Düsseldorf. For him, the signal of the evening is clear: The FDP is back.
After the general election in four months, Lindner wants to move to Berlin. He used the election evening in Düsseldorf to make it clear that his party no longer sees itself as a natural coalition partner of the CDU. He was “” not the preferred coalition partner of Mr. Laschet “”, said Lindner several times, “” and he is not mine “”. Nobody should get the idea that black-yellow 2017 is even remotely similar to black-yellow 2009 remind. At that time, the Union and FDP concluded a “wish coalition” at the federal level, which then disintegrated for four years.
The result is well known: In 2013 the FDP was thrown out of the Bundestag and was considered politically dead. Since then, Lindner has been taking care of the resurrection. Successful, as you can see. All the numbers, all the facts about the election in North Rhine-Westphalia. In Schleswig-Holstein, the Greens got 12.9 percent a week ago and landed in front of the FDP, in North Rhine-Westphalia they had to fear being thrown out of the state parliament .
There they drew a lot of criticism, which was directed against the state government as a whole. One reason: Together with Education Minister and top candidate Sylvia Löhrmann, you were responsible for school policy – surveys show that many voters viewed this issue as a problem. The CDU and FDP also successfully portrayed the Greens as the party that blamed the state’s mixed economic situation is. “If there is a lot of criticism, especially of the Greens, the poor red-green government balance leads to a classic vote against voting,” “analyzed the Wahlen research group. Unpleasant from the perspective of the Greens: The Germany-wide surveys show that it is not their election success in Schleswig-Holstein that is in the federal trend, but their result in North Rhine-Westphalia. For Marcus Pretzell the election is not a success – but at least his party now knows how strong it is, if she does everything wrong. (Photo: REUTERS) You can interpret the AfD result as a success, but also as a defeat.
As a defeat, because the AfD has achieved double-digit results in its prime. Her greatest success so far was 24.2 percent in Saxony-Anhalt last year, but all other election results in 2016 were also in double digits – not only in Eastern Germany, but also in Baden-Württemberg and Rhineland-Palatinate. Seen in this way, the 7.4 percent in North Rhine-Westphalia are almost embarrassing, but the AfD has also made every effort to alienate voters. Even the top candidate for the federal election, Alexander Gauland, admitted that. Regarding the internal party disputes, he said on election evening that it was entirely possible “” that these discussions have also contributed to the fact that voters have dropped out “”. This can be interpreted positively, and Gauland does it too: Since these conflicts are now “” behind us, things can only “” get better.
You could also say: Even if the AfD does everything to look bad, it still manages more than 7 percent, and it has really done a lot to deter voters. At the federal level, the party argued about how to deal with the völkisch southpaw Björn Höcke and about the “realpolitical course”, for which AfD leader Frauke Petry did not get a majority at the party conference in Cologne. In NRW, the top candidate Marcus Pretzell, Petry’s husband, was anything but undisputed.
Seen in this way, 7.4 percent is not a bad result. Failed at the five percent hurdle but still in a good mood? At least the left is trying to do that. “” We have doubled our votes, “said left leader Bernd Riexinger in Berlin, and almost every left-wing politician there and in Düsseldorf repeated this sentence. That doesn’t change the fact that the party is represented in fewer state parliaments than the AfD.
She doesn’t have to fear being thrown out of parliament for the Bundestag election. But she only has a real perspective of power and change with the SPD and the Greens. Such a perspective is not discernible, on the contrary: Riexinger’s co-chair Katja Kipping demanded that the SPD chancellor candidate Schulz should adopt a “” left “” policy confess. The CDU would probably be delighted if Schulz did this. Stay with the pirates. They fell from 7.8 percent to 1.0 percent. The reason? “” Nobody is interested in their issues “”, said the political scientist Carsten Koschmieder to n-tv.de, “” it has no known top staff, it is a small party without money or resources.
Then you get between zero and two percent. “” The pirates owe their brief success not to their own abilities, but solely to the fact that some of the voters were dissatisfied with the other parties. That is probably still the case. But the pirates don’t benefit anymore. Source: ntv.de “Had a bitter evening: SPD chancellor candidate Martin Schulz. (Photo: AP) The defeat in North Rhine-Westphalia is a drama for the SPD. The result is not directed against Martin Schulz. But that will hardly help the chancellor candidate in the next few months. “” A May Day is a categorical imperative of joy “” – the German poet Friedrich Hebbel once wrote.
May is actually considered a happy month, but for the SPD it certainly has no validity this year. At the latest since the bitter election evening in North Rhine-Westphalia, May 2017 will be remembered bitterly. For the CDU, the election success is a coup.
It sweeps one and a half top comrades off the field in one fell swoop. The era of Prime Minister Hannelore Kraft has come to an end, Martin Schulz counts heavily. The candidate for chancellor bears no responsibility for the defeat, but he is the one who has to pay for it now. It’s not his fault and still stands there like a fool.
Schulz has made a lot of election campaigns between the Rhine and Weser in recent weeks. North Rhine-Westphalia is his federal state, his home. Since his free choice in January it was clear that this state election would be the most important overture for the federal election. But the name of incumbent Hannelore Kraft was on the ballot papers. The policy of the red-green state government was voted on.
Most of all, Kraft fell over their modest record. Schulz has nothing to do with it. The SPD candidate, however, has something to do with the fact that this defeat comes as a surprise.
The hype surrounding Schulz had also brought Kraft and the North Rhine-Westphalian SPD an upswing in February and March, which masked the mood of change for a few weeks. In March, the SPD in North Rhine-Westphalia was now 40 percent and well ahead of the CDU. At the time, the comrades even feared difficulties in mobilizing. In retrospect, this is somewhat absurd today. The defeat is a drama for Kraft, for Schulz and the entire SPD.
The party has not lost a Prime Minister since 2005 – at that time also in North Rhine-Westphalia, by the way – now it loses two within a week. She gets her worst result in NRW, loses despite a lead, despite supposed home advantage in her home country, despite incumbent bonus, despite a pale CDU candidate. All of this makes this election result more difficult for the Social Democrats to endure. The defeat in Saarland, which is of little national importance, could still be belittled. Then came the bankruptcy in Schleswig-Holstein.
An election victory in NRW could have been the great liberation. Would have. Back to Schulz: Until March it seemed as if the candidate didn’t have to do anything – he cleared. The SPD did not experience a run like long before the bubble burst in April. Since then everything has gone wrong, since then the ease has gone.
Why actually? As exaggerated as the initial euphoria surrounding Schulz was, the mood turned into the opposite with just as exaggerated force. Schulz is a prime example of a self-fulfilling prophecy. No sooner had the SPD put him on the bill than the first announced his fall beforehand. Everyone waited for every sign of weakness in order to finally be able to triumph and be confirmed.
Ultimately, Schulz could do what he wanted, his case could not be averted at all. From high-flyer to big loser in just a few weeks – that has little to do with reality. Hannelore Kraft took over responsibility for the election failure in North Rhine-Westphalia. But the Federal SPD will not be able to avoid an error analysis either. Did the candidate for chancellor make mistakes?
Perhaps Schulz should have offered more content in the three and a half months, could have been more specific here and there. Would it have been advantageous if he had joined the cabinet as minister at the same time? Perhaps. But then presumably every step he took would have been denigrated as campaigning. Schulz has not yet made this one major, decisive mistake that conclusively explains this dynamic, but this election result does not only have consequences for Kraft.
Even if the SPD leadership will do everything, this defeat can hardly be separated from Schulz. Of course, it will damage the candidate for chancellor and worsen his chances in the federal election. If the SPD cannot even mobilize enough voters in its home country, how is it supposed to succeed across the country in September?
Schulz have four months.